The Local Impact of Climate Change
On September 13th, 2008, The Pacific Grove Museum of Natural History, in cooperation with Sustainable Pacific Grove, sponsored a panel discussion about the effects of global climate change on our local area. ‘Local’ meant primarily the Monterey Peninsula but extending into the Salinas Valley.
We all receive an enormous amount of information about the effects of climate change on events far from our daily lives, like declining polar bear populations and the flooding of south sea island nations. However, these don’t affect us directly. The point of the panel discussion was to bring these issues home: to increase awareness of local changes that have already happened or that are likely to happen and that do affect us directly: to connect melting glaciers to our daily lives and those of our children.
The discussion featured four local scientists; Judith T. Kildow, Ph.D., Director, National Ocean Economics Program, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute; Franklin B. Schwing, Ph.D., Director, Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries Service; Douglas Smith, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Division of Science and Environmental Policy, CSUMB; and, Steven Webster, Ph.D., Senior Marine Biologist (retired), Monterey Bay Aquarium. The moderator was Nick Papadakis, the Director of AMBAG. Dan Cort, the Mayor of Pacific Grove, described Pacific Grove’s responses to these issues.
What we learned was that climate change already has, and will increasingly, affect us locally. The panelists agreed that we are in a critical 10 year window in which the changes that are already happening will gather speed and have greater impact but also that changes we make to mitigate these effects must be made within the next decade if they are to significantly reduce the dangers we are facing.
Dr. Kildow began her remarks with a quotation that bears on this 10 year time frame. "We must understand the meaning of the word “crisis” when we speak of climate change. It does not mean catastrophe or imminent demise; rather it means “a crucial or decisive moment, a turning point, a state of affairs in which a decisive change for better or worse is imminent.” -- Andrew Rifkin
How will our local environment be affected as a result of a changed climate in the years to come?
Weather
· We can expect higher minimum temperatures. There has been an increase of 2o F just in the last 50 years.
· There may be less humidity and warmer nights.
· There is likely to be more rain north of us and less rain south of us. It isn’t clear which we will experience locally.
· Weather will be more variable, with more extreme events. We could experience hurricanes.
· Monterey Bay has become warmer and will continue to warm and become more acid.
· The most dramatic change would occur if there was an alteration in the upwelling of cold water from the canyon under Monterey Bay. Among other dramatic effects, our weather would get much warmer in the summer.
Shoreline changes
· Ocean levels are up 7” (18 cm) in the last 50 years. There is a projected 12-18” (30-46 cm.) rise in the next 50 years. Flooding and storm surge damage will increase.
· Coastal retreat rates (the rate at which coastline is lost to the ocean) currently range from no change at the Municipal Wharf in Monterey to 2 meters (about 6’) per year near CSU-Monterey Bay. There has been an average 45 meter (150') retreat in last 30 years – and the rate will increase with higher sea levels. Armoring the shoreline comes at a high cost and there is a trade-off between preventing coastal retreat and saving beaches. This will have less impact on the shoreline of Pacific Grove, because of its geology, but much more impact where there are sandy beaches, like Marina.
· Some of our critical infrastructure is located along the coast. Relocating infrastructure is expensive and disruptive.
· There will be a loss of marshland in places like Elkhorn Slough but more marshland created in the Salinas area.
· Saltwater intrusion, already a very serious problem, will increase.
Socio-economic effects
· The warming and acidification of the ocean has an especially negative effect on shellfish and, consequently, their predators. That, in turn, impacts both fishing and tourism.
· Coastal erosion affects some of our most expensive real estate, as well as our beaches, which are a major tourist attraction.
· Extreme weather events increase costs to the insurance business.
· Increased temperatures affect power use (including transportation), disease patterns, and the health of the elderly and other at-risk populations.
· The upwelling of cold water from the submarine canyon under Monterey Bay provides our natural ‘air conditioning’ including our cool night-time temperatures. If that changes, it will change the types of crops that can be grown in the Salinas Valley.
· For a variety of reasons, but clearly because tourism and agriculture drive the economy of Monterey County, those most affected by changes in our climate will be the poor.
What next?
Sustainability means two things. It means instituting practices that will reduce or eliminate destructive changes in the future. It also means taking steps to cope with the changes that we can no longer prevent. We must do what we can, as individuals and through government and its agencies to slow climate change. There is active and ongoing debate in Monterey County, about how “green” County and City planning documents and directives should be. We should support ‘green’ initiatives as well as making changes in how we live our lives.
However, the thrust of this panel discussion was about the changes in our climate and in our environment that have already happened and about those that, with reasonable certainty, can be predicted to occur in the future. There seems to be little or no action or planning directed at mitigating or responding to predictable future changes in our local environment. That should concern us all.
-- Larry Telles, 11/18/08
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